[DML] DCS09Prelude Expected to Cost Even Less!!
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[DML] DCS09Prelude Expected to Cost Even Less!!
- From: Bob Brandys <BobB@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:09:18 -0500
From Today's Las Vegas Sun
Capacity crunch
Times are tough in the Las Vegas resort business, and they are about to
get a lot tougher.
Hotel room occupancy and rates plummeted last year as the bottom fell
out of the demand side of the supply-demand curve. Resort operators are
bracing for a big challenge on the supply side as CityCenter and
Fontainebleau prepare to open before year’s end, part of a capacity
increase of more than 12,000 rooms that threatens to send rates
spiraling lower.
Last year’s shake-up on the demand side was dramatic. Although
visitation was off 4.4 percent to 44.1 million people in 2008, the
average daily room rate plunged 9.8 percent to $119.19 a night. That
compares with an average rate of $132.09 in 2007, the all-time high,
and $119.66 in 2006.
Jeremy Aguero, principal analyst for Applied Analysis, a Las
Vegas-based economic consulting firm, said he expects the issues of
capacity and driving higher room rates will be around for at least
three years, but he also thinks MGM Mirage may be best equipped to
address it.
Aguero thinks it’s possible that underperforming properties or portions
of hotels would be closed. But he wouldn’t speculate which ones they
would be.
There is precedence for such drastic action: During the winter lull
Herbst Gaming closed hotel rooms Mondays through Thursdays at Buffalo
Bill’s in Primm, and Black Gaming cut capacity by closing rooms at the
Oasis in Mesquite.
Many companies in the tourism industry have yield management formulas,
which involve optimizing revenue opportunities based on inventory,
which has a finite shelf life. For airlines, the value of the product
ends as soon as the plane leaves the gate. For hotels, tonight’s hotel
room can’t be restocked and sold tomorrow.
Cutting capacity is riskier in the resort industry because other
revenue could be affected if rooms are closed.
“We may end up harming our casinos, restaurants and entertainment
offerings, which could result in less overall spending per night,”
Feldman said. “It’s a pretty involved calculation. Most of our
properties are sized in such a way that they work best when near full
capacity.”
“To take supply out of the market probably doesn’t make sense,” Lerner
said. “That’s not how multiproperty operators view the world anyway.”
But he expects CityCenter will cannibalize business from existing
resorts, including MGM’s.
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